At 10AM Eastern on Thursday, the Tampa Rays will likely kick off the 2007 MLB Rule 5 and make their first selection. The background on the Rule 5 Draft is as follows
Teams must protect players on their 40-man rosters within four or five years of their original signing. Those left unprotected are available to other teams as Rule 5 picks. Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after five minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after four seasons.
In clearer terms (and thanks to Chris Kline of Baseball America)
High school players drafted in 2003 and college players drafted in 2004 become eligible for the Rule 5 for the first time this year. International signees and all others signed before age 19 in the year 2003 also require protection.
There have conflicting reports of the relative strength of the 2006 versus 2007 Rule 5 draft. While there might not be a Josh Hamilton in this year’s class (a former #1 overall MLB prospect), the 2007 class of Rule 5 eligibles is deeper than its 2006 counterpart.
There are an intriguing assortment of former top 10 draft picks from the 2003 draft who have not developed as their drafting organizations would have hoped. MiLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo highlights Chris Lubanski (Royals), Ryan Harvey (Cubs), and Eric Duncan (Yankees), the #5, 6 & 27 picks in the 2003 First Year Player Draft. None have developed as hoped and were left unprotected for the Rule 5, but none of the three are older than 23 and their windows as prospects have not yet completely closed.
From a Nationals point of view, the only two names of the above three that might have value are Lubanski and Duncan. Harvey is a right-handed outfielder and if we know anything, the Nationals are already flush with that. I’ve previously highlighted Lubanski’s potential value as a left-handed bat off of the bench and fifth outfielder. The only caution is whether keeping him as a part time player would damage him developmentally. I believe the Royals were willing to expose him to the draft thinking other teams would not want to delay his development any longer by letting him sit on the bench. Rumors have it the Marlins are considering him with the #4 pick. If that’s the case, he might see regular playing time with Florida.
Duncan is another left-handed bat, albeit a corner infielder. 1B is probably his “best” position but he was drafted as and can play 3B in a pinch. I’ll pull some highlights from Pinstripe Potentials on Duncan from December of 2006:
His tool is his bat. From the start, Eric Duncan was looked on by scouts as a big time power hitter. This is a mischaracterization of Duncan. Eric Duncan will never be a 30+ home run guy. He simply does not have the swing for it. He tends to be very uncomfortable pulling balls, prefering to drive pitches in to left center field. He is one of the best in the minors at doing so. His eye at the plate is extremely selective, resulting in comparisons to Chipper Jones. His defense at 3rd was average at it’s absolute best, although he has proven to be a passable 1st baseman.
Duncan has battled a back injury that has lingered over the last several years. His left-handed bat is what would make him a possible candidate for selection. In my opinion, it would not harm Duncan’s development to be a bench player. I think what you see is what you get with him and if the Nationals think he can serve as a left-handed bat off of the bench and an occasional substitute for Zimmerman at 3B in blowout situations, he is worth consideration. (Note: One other thing to consider with regards to Duncan, he’s a New Jersey native and the Nationals Dana Brown has shown a soft spot for players from the Garden State).
Chris Kline at Baseball America highlighted several of the more popular rumored names in the Draft back on November 28 (with a follow-up on December 4). Of the names he mentioned, the ones I’d watch out for in association with the Nationals are:
- Carlos Guevara RHP Reds: The main reason I included Guevara is his team of origin. The 25-year old Guevara is a RHRP with a plus screwball. He seems a good choice for a team looking for bullpen help.
- Jamie D’Antona 3B/CA Diamondbacks: I was a proponent of D’Antona last year and I’m re-proposing him for the same reason, his ability to catch and back up at 3B. I doubt he’d be the selection given the Nats desire to identify a left-handed catcher to pair with Jesus Flores (D’Antona is right-handed).
- Leyson Septimo LHP Diamondbacks: I touched on him earlier this week … a 22-year old LHRP (being converted from an OF) from the Diamondbacks - this one is another gut feel. If he is hitting triple digits and given Mike Rizzo’s presence/input/recommendation, he could be a gamble worth investing in. It would be a project pick, no doubt but the Nats could use him as a LOOGY for the year.
- Diory Hernandez SS Braves: Known primarily for his above average glove. Hernandez hit 308/366/429 with 7 HR and 33 doubles between the Carolina (High-A) and Southern (Double-A) Leagues. There have been rumblings about the Nats looking for a defensive shortstop and Hernandez could be worth a look.
- Carl Loadenthal CF Braves: I’ve touched on Loadenthal earlier (center fielder with solid range but more importantly he appears to not only possess the ability to get on base at a much better than league average basis, he also has enough speed to steal bases). He’s lefthanded which might make him an attractive option for the Nats.
- Shane Lindsay RHP Rockies: Rehabbing from a torn labrum that cost him the 2007 season (except for a brief stopover in the Hawaiian league), Lindsay has a mid-90s fastball and above average knuckle-curve. It would certainly be a gamble but it could be a project worth a look for pitching coach Randy St. Claire
- Jeff Allison RHP Marlins: Think Josh Hamilton version 2007. Allison is a former top prospect of the Florida Marlins who saw his career derailed by drugs. He bounced on and off of the restricted list as he got into and out of trouble with the law. While his make-up might be questionable, his talent is still there. Still only 23, Allison still throws a 90-93mph FB, above average CB and average C/U. Much like many of the moves so far this off-season, it would come with a considerable amount of baggage.
Since it sounds like Lubanski is going to be off the board, so if I had to make the choice I’d take a chance on (1) Hernandez, (2) Lindsay, or (3) Septimo [Septimo is more a longshot]. I have no idea who is going to be out there in the minor league portion of the draft so I won’t even hazard a guess.
For the sake of completeness, here is a link to the Nationals Rule 5 eligibles though I doubt anyone will be selected.
